I know you're expecting it. If you're not expecting it, you should be expecting it, by God. This year, though, I don't really wanna write it. For one thing, I haven't written that much lately. I've been shackled to a crossbar for about six months now with a non-stop supply of Steel Reserve Malt Liquor and tiny Mexican candies, and I must say, the stagnation's sort of grown on me. At first I was all like, "oh, shit, gotta keep producing," but now I'm all like, "why can't I make more than 10 user-created teams in Madden? What the hell is wrong with you fascists at EA Sports?" I have also lost two waist sizes but I'm trying to get one of 'em back. Also, I do crosswords.
But then they announced the 52nd Grammy Award nominees tonight, and having been reminded of my 3-year-strong streak of success in predicting the eventual winner at an obscenely early time, I was jostled into consciousness by one of the several numbers-runners I am proud to call my clients. They know how the touch of steel turns me on, and I like the way they call me "bandito." When I'm shackled to the crossbar.
So let's do this.
This year is trickier than the last two years. In the 50th and 51st Grammy Awards for Album Of The Year, we had two very old veterans, Herbie Hancock and Robert Plant (w/Alison Krauss), who squeezed into the category, and by doing so absolutely ensured they would win, because the Grammy folks love it when they confuse Album Of The Year with Lifetime Achievement. Of course, it calls the awards' currency into question, and leads to accusations of the Grammy Awards being out of step with contemporary tastes, but that's always been the case anyway. If Granddad's gonna insist on wearing the salmon pastel shirt, might as well give him a pair of velour sweatpants to go with. What're you gonna do?
They must've formed some emergency committees this year, though, because there isn't a Lifetime Achievement possibility in these five albums. What we do have, however, is a surplus of divas. If you count Fergie from the Black Eyed Peas, then 80% of the Album Of The Year nominees are grade-A, certified diva-licious. And they dominate the top 3 categories of Album, Record and Song of the Year. These are the most diva-loaded Grammys ever. All my gay friends are going to have to do Grammy parties this year.
So here's what you got:
Big Whiskey & the GrooGrux King, Dave Matthews Band
The E.N.D., The Black Eyed Peas
The Fame, Lady Gaga
Fearless, Taylor Swift
I Am…Sasha Fierce, Beyoncé
Before we do anything else, let's deflate the unholy union of frat-boys and hacky-sackers right now: Dave Matthews is not going to win this. Apologies in advance to astral physicists and men who identify themselves as "Scooter," but it ain't happenin'. GrooGrux is the token rock entry, and a shocking one at that, when you consider that it shows up here at the expense of U2 and Green Day. (U2 was as safe a prediction as one could have made for this category in the last few weeks. My theory is "Get On Your Boots" probably sank it in the end.) If your album isn't nominated for Lifetime Achievement reasons, then you need momentum in the form of supporting nominations to even have a chance of winning AOTY. Matthews has one other nomination. I'm not sure what GrooGrux is doing here. I envision a horde of white men at NARAS making a Custer's stand for slap-bass and drum compression and insisting on its nomination, threatening everyone else in the room with framed platinum albums of Toto IV if they didn't go along.
(SCORE UPDATE: This year's Toto IV joke appeared at word #634. The over-under was 750.)
You can also probably count Lady Gaga out as well. Out of this lot, The Fame is probably my favorite album, personally. Lady's interesting, and not just because of the rumors that she was a hermaphrodite, which I think have been denounced, but I'm not willing to go to the expense to ensure. "Bad Romance" is a great pop song (but it's not on The Fame). She plays piano quite well. There's a kink to her that's genuine. She's emblematic of contemporary culture at its most future-looking. (In that it looks like it's futuristic, not that it's revolutionary.) Time will tell whether her persona can last and/or evolve, and I think Grammy voters might decide she's too temporal to enshrine her yet. Plus, if I have my facts right, this is the first straight-through electronic/dance album to ever get nominated (I don't count Madonna's Ray Of Light), and the Grammys have kept the dance floor at arm's length since Saturday Night Fever bullied its way to winning in 1979. Hopefully they will let Lady Gaga design the ice sculpture at the after-party, which I'm hoping will be a nude study.
Even after holding sway over the singles charts for the approximate length of the Mesozoic Era, the Black Eyed Peas still have a problem with being taken seriously. Most people I know are somewhat annoyed with them. I don't really know why, but that's because I don't pay much attention. I do know that they ripped off the Basement Jaxx font for the lettering of the front cover of The E.N.D., and that's not going to curry any empathy from the all-powerful typographer bloc. The E.N.D. feels like it was a hit because it had to be, not because anybody wanted it to be. I feel bad saying that, because I don't know exactly what it is about the BEP's that people find off-putting. I mean, I don't listen to them, but they seem perfectly nice to me. Not as nice as Mos Def, but nice enough. Well, anyway. I'm ruling them out too, until 2026 when they get the Lifetime Achievement nod for The A.C.H.I.N.G.J.O.I.N.T.S.
That leaves Beyoncé and Taylor Swift. I'm very confident Album Of The Year will go to one of those two. Damn, I just wish there was an old dude to make this prediction easier. I understand it was supposed to be Allen Toussaint this year, but I guess Dave Matthews bumped him off too. Good Lord, will he stop at nothing?
There are lots of compelling pros and cons for both Beyoncé and Taylor. Number One, they're both unfailingly loved by large segments of the population. Probably the most telling moment of how nice they both are happened at the VMA's, when Beyoncé ceded her acceptance speech to Taylor to make up for Kanye West's infamous disruption of Swift's acceptance speech. Let's be honest here: Kanye's dunderheaded, clumsy, rude and contextually pointless interruption of Taylor's moment may have been the best thing that could have happened to Swift. In the aftermath she showed poise and class, and made no open retaliation against Kanye, until the socially acceptable time for it: when she hosted Saturday Night Live. And Beyoncé showed the right amount of embarrassment, and then displayed no small amount of class and dignity when she invited Swift onstage.
Them's two classy broads. Man, the things I'd do with them and a couple of glass display cases.
So, from that forged alliance at the VMA's to mortal opponents at the Grammys, and pretty evenly matched ones at that. Kanye was right in that Beyoncé's "Single Ladies" was a hugely iconic music video, at exactly a time when iconic music videos are almost never made anymore. Taylor Swift is steamrolling through the media without alienating so much as a parking attendant. There isn't so much stigmatizing over her being a "crossover" artist. Carrie Underwood isn't so lucky in that regard, right now, although she's just as nice as either of them.
Both of them stretch themselves artistically – well, as much as millionaire pop stars do these days, anyway. Beyoncé has more nominations than anyone else this year. I Am…Sasha Fierce was conceived as her alter-ego project, and at least beat the crap out of Garth Brooks' Chris Gaines character. Swift writes her own songs and plays guitar, and whatever creative areas she may fall short in can be offset by the reality that she's only 19 friggin' years old. That's the age I learned how to open beer bottles with my teeth.
There are your two choices. If you're doing a win-place combo I'm more than satisfied to leave you with those, except the Grammy people never mention who came in second, so I have to make a choice. In doing so, I'll explain the biggest obstacles to both Beyoncé and Taylor Swift winning the award, because one of them kind of plays into Grammy history and gives one of them the edge.
First off, with the Beyoncé album – nobody got it. That is, nobody got the alter-ego concept. It arrived with some faint air of disappointment; not because the music was bad, but because there was a somewhat complex pretense to it that never really played out as it should have in the media. Do you know the difference between Beyoncé and Sasha Fierce? I don't. One of them has an accent grave, but when I've swallowed this much moonshine I can't tell which.
With Taylor Swift, she's just so young, and her media dominance so sudden, that voters may saddle her with the opposite of Lifetime Achievement, which can be summed up as "let's see where you are in ten years, sweetheart." You have to figure that some voters are going to want to see her prove a little more before she gets the Big One. They denied Donny Osmond and Rodney Allen Rippey, too.
So to call this one, we're gonna have to go all the way back to the mid-'90s, right at the moment when the Grammys were facing one of their frequent credibility problems. Between 1991 and 1995, Album Of The Year went to Quincy Jones, Natalie Cole, Eric Clapton, The Bodyguard soundtrack, and Tony Bennett. That's a five-year span of albums with absolutely no influence or relevance over their own times, let alone now. Giving Album Of The Year to those albums rubbed certain people who read the papers (back then news came on pieces of paper) the wrong way, so they decided to form a posse and try to make the '96 winner something that at least sounded contemporary, and at best relevant.
What'd they choose? Alanis Morissette's Jagged Little Pill. Not my cup of tea, certainly a bit dated now, but at least it sounded like it was recorded in the general era of its eligibility. It took chances with its shrill comeuppance and depictions of oral pleasure in movie theaters (or maybe it was live theater – nah, that would be too obtrusive). Morissette was a reformed child performer whose skills in serious music were, at the time, unproven and untested. She was dangerously young to be winning Album Of The Year, but the Grammys had to compensate.
Herbie Hancock and Robert Plant/Alison Krauss won the last two years – both with much better albums than any between 1991 and 1995, but you can still hear the snickers from the parking attendants. "Lifetime Achievements… no cultural relevance… your velour slacks are ready at the dry-cleaners…" So they're going to be very gung-ho in January to give the young, naïve, lip-pursing 21st century a big, sloppy, lecherous reach-around.
Taylor Swift's Fearless wins Album Of The Year on January 31. Book it.
I'm going back to my crossbar. It's French Revolution night and Pierre's promised me a Cadbury if I wear the stirrups. Happy holidays.